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MARIN REAL ESTATE BLOG

 

Oct 13

CAR Update: Economic Forecast and the Impact of the Millennials

By California Association of Realtors, Marin Association of Realtors, Marin Real Estate News

Good day MAR members!

It’s great to be back in Marin after a week across the street from the Happiest Place on Earth.  We could see Disneyland from our C.A.R. hotel and the Anaheim Convention Center, but things were so busy that looking from a distance was all we could do.  Perhaps that’s not so bad, after seeing all the bleary-eyed parents looking like the walking wounded returning from the park with their kids.

And:  LET’S GO GIANTS!!  Pretty huge cheers went up whenever one of the speakers said that at the meetings…which is surprising because there are way more people in SoCal…and our SoCal friends were licking their wounds after the Dodgers and Angels were dispatched from the playoffs last week.  There sure was a lot of Angels gear for sale in the gift shop of our hotel, but after observing for five days I didn’t see a single item leave the store.

SAFETY SAFETY SAFETY

By now, many of you probably saw the “Alert – Marin Agent Safety” we sent out last Saturday.  If you didn’t see it, you can check it out HERE.  The net is that there is allegedly a person posing as a REALTOR® going around to open houses looking for prescription drugs.  Police have advised members that unless he is actually caught stealing something there is nothing they can do.

One thing you can do is get a “Pill Pod” from the MAR store.  The Pill Pod is essentially a $20 plastic “safe” to store medication.  It’s not an indestructible device, but it is big enough that medication can’t be put in a pocket and walked out with.  It’s an inexpensive, effective deterrent.  For more info, you can just drop by the MAR store and check it out.

In the wake of the Beverly Carter murder in Arkansas, we need to keep a very watchful eye out for “copycat” assaults on agents.  This past Saturday, a 55-year-old female agent in Orange County was punched in the face at one of her listings: ARTICLE

This Wednesday morning at the Novato Tour Meeting, Officers Conrad and Doyle from the Novato Police Department will be attending to discuss agent safety and how the police can be of help.  They would also like feedback from the agent community.  The safety meeting starts at 9:00 and is held at the Novato Youth Center at 680 Wilson in Novato.

Be careful out there!

CAR FALL BUSINESS MEETINGS

As I mentioned, MAR’s CAR Director delegation spent last week in Anaheim at the Expo and Fall Business Meetings.  I’ll do my best to distill the most important info out of my 23 pages of notes I took…it will likely take me a couple of weeks to get through all of it.

Let me first get to the two numbers you need to know for your clients and prospects:  at the 2015 Economic Forecast by CAR Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young, she reported that CAR expects that California unit sales will go up by 5.8% in 2015, and that the median price will increase by 5.2%.  Keep those two numbers in mind, and you will be armed with the freshest data next time someone asks you about the market outlook.

Ahhh, but digging into those numbers is what will make you sound even smarter.  The most startling overall sentiment in Anaheim is how there is a perception of a market slowdown throughout California.  CAR was way off on its 2014 market projections.  Earlier this year, I reported that CAR was expecting total unit sales to INCREASE by 6%.  CAR now expects unit sales to DECREASE by 8.2% in 2014.  That’s quite a miss.  Also, they expected the median price to also go up by 6%, and they now expect that number to increase by 11.8%.

What’s also startling about this is that the 2014 unit and price projections were calculated with an expectation that interest rates would have materially risen with the end of QE, and they expected the rates to be well over 5% by now.  As we know the interest rates have been pretty flat for most of the year.

THE MILLENNIALS, OUR SLOWLY-EMERGING FIRST-TIME-BUYER GENERATION

This disconnect came up at a number of meetings I attended.  The finger kept getting pointed to our new first-time-buyers…the “Millennials”…or “Generation Y”.  More commonly known as “your kids”, and also identified as the largest generation in American history.  With the oldest of them in their early 30s, they’re not buying houses as quickly as previous generations.

Over the past year, starting at last October’s CAR meetings in Long Beach, much of the collective efforts  of CAR can be described as a psychology and sociology study of this generation.  Here are some interesting tidbits, in no particular order.

-Millennials are delaying getting married.  Marriage rates are plummeting.  Less marriages = less homes purchased.

-They’re still living at home.  And I kept hearing that they like their parents much more than we did.  That’s slowing these young adults from “growing up”.  I kept hearing that “90% of Gen Ys have a good relationship with their parents.”  And sit down for this one:  2/3 of adult children living with their parents are “satisfied with the arrangement.”  And you thought it was just you…  They didn’t share whether the parents felt the same way about this arrangement.

-People are simply moving less.  Why?  Kids like their parents better.

-Regarding the plummeting marriage rate, one interesting anecdote was shared by Richard Thornberg, one of CAR’s top economists:  In previous generations, more men went to college, and more men had degrees than women.  Today it’s just the opposite:  More women are going to college than men, and more women have degrees than men.  So what?  Mr. Thornberg offered the following demographic comment:  Better educated men are ok being in a relationship with less educated women, but better educated women are NOT ok being in a relationship with less educated men.  This is a demographic conundrum that won’t go away soon.

-Or, more simply put, Mr. Thornburg asked for the single women in the audience to raise their hands if they’re ok going on a date with an adult man living with his parents.  Not many hands went up.

-Our population in California is becoming more Latino and more Asian.  Latinos and Asians historically live with their parents longer.

-Given our recent housing debate in Marin, how about this:  78% of Millennials would prefer to not own a car and rather would like to walk to everything.

-Millennials want walkability.  Millennials actually ARE buying in downtown LA and downtown Oakland.  Walkability, nightlife and activity in general were cited as the reasons for this.  They don’t care about quality of schools, because none of them are having kids yet.

-As for the decrease in units, investors are not in the market as heavily, and “investors need to be replaced by first-time-buyers” and it’s not happening.

THE PUBLIC POLICY DEBATE ON HOUSING

On several occasions, CAR CEO Joel Singer described housing as “the Achilles Heel of California.”  We’re just not building enough new housing, as he said.  California has 13% of the population in the US, and only generates 8% of the building permits.  The population is still growing, but nothing is being built for them.  The need for reform of CEQA came up over and over again.  CEQA is the California Environment Quality Act, and it makes building difficult.

Plus, it seems that everywhere other than Marin, density is preferred and increasing.  That’s where the Millennials want to live.  So Sacramento is focusing on affordable rentals, not affordable housing for purchase.  Joel Singer said that in a recent conversation with the Speaker of the California Assembly Toni Atkins (who hails from Coastal San Diego County), when asked about housing affordability, she started talking about rental affordability.  She told Joel, “just wait until we’re a 50% renter society.”

So that’s where the public policy debate in Sacramento is focused:  rental affordability.

As for the affordability of housing for purchase, it’s become increasingly unaffordable in California.  At the height of the recession, Joel Singer described it as a “once in a generation buying opportunity”.  Those days are long gone.  The ability to purchase a median-priced home in California has fallen to 36% this year, compared to 60% for the US.  Joel called this “self-inflicted pain” because we’re not building.

I’ll leave it there for now.  There is so much more to report, I’ll pick it up next week.

I wish you a safe and prosperous week.

Blaine Morris

2014 MAR President

Oct 09

Realtor Safety and Housing Density AB-1537 Signed Into Law

By Legislation, Marin Association of Realtors, Marin Real Estate News

Good morning MAR members!

Now that’s more like it! I’ve got to say, I love the heat. But I don’t love the humidity. This has been a voodoo freaky summer here in Marin…sticky, sweaty, muggy. Finally, we’ve had some of that beautiful, humidity-free fall weather. In years past, I might be taking it for granted, but not this year. I’ve been enjoying every toasty moment. Keep it coming!

And let me get this out of the way right out front: LET’S GO GIANTS!! What a sports weekend, Giants, 49ers. Big win for Cal, sad loss for Stanford. Oh, and let’s not forget Utah’s stirring win over #8 UCLA at the Rose Bowl on Saturday night. Sorry Kate Hamilton and all the rest of you Bruin fans (my sister included…).

REALTOR® SAFETY

With those light-hearted thoughts out of the way, time to get serious. We just finished up NAR’s REALTOR® Safety Month. So much has been said about the tragic death of REALTOR® colleague Beverly Carter. Horrible, horrible, horrible. This could have been any of us.

The news has hit all of us like a ton of bricks. Last week, it was the talk of our industry. Out on tour, in office meetings, in conversations with loved ones, friends and clients.

On Wednesday, I was previewing a listing of MAR member Beth Brody’s in Mill Valley. She was telling a story from years ago of an incident in Muir Beach where something just didn’t seem right with a supposed buyer. She reported the incident to the police, and a week later got a call from the FBI about REALTOR® murder in Sacramento with a description matching the guy she had reported. We think we’re all very safe here in beautiful Marin, but it happens here too.

As our sales meeting last week, the topic was REALTOR® safety. I reminded everyone that we have a local Marin emergency number that is quicker and better than 911…it’s 415-472-0911. You should definitely put that in your cell phone.

And as an industry, we need to SLOW THINGS DOWN sometimes. Showing homes to people we’ve not met, at empty houses, is simply a bad business practice. There is a tremendous amount of pressure being created by the so-called “on demand” society. At the Inman conference in SF earlier this summer, the founder of a large internet-based broker (one with a color in its name) was smugly boasting about how his business model is simply accommodating a need and expectation by the buyer community for “on demand” showing of real estate. Telling us that if we don’t do it, someone else will. There were a number of his agents at various breakout sessions throughout the day, each telling stories of “out-on-demanding” traditional REALTORS®.

I don’t see this changing anytime soon. There is tremendous competitive pressure to convert leads, often from buyers who want to look at a house right now/in an hour/sometime this morning. Particularly if you’re a new agent or an experienced agent trying to jumpstart your business…the expectation has been created, and if you don’t do it someone else will.

My advice: meet them at your office. These stories of incidents involving REALTORS® are not new, this one with Ms. Carter simply turned around so quickly and tragically it’s got all of our attention. Don’t let this opportunity go to waste…make a commitment to be careful! Here is the link to NAR’s REALTOR® Safety page HERE. Let’s take the attention of this tragedy with a new commitment to being safe.

REALTOR® SAFETY, PART II

Speaking of safety, MAR member Abby Tanem last week reported that she recognized a fake REALTOR® from several years ago who claims to be from Pacific Union’s Mill Valley office…but has no card. Abby remembered him, and called PU to confirm that no one by that name worked there. We all thought this guy was busted for theft a few years back, but he seems to have resurfaced. Please tell your clients to lock up valuables and medication…especially the kinds that lend themselves to abuse.

With that in mind, earlier this year I was approached by a local vendor who has a very affordable solution to medication theft…it’s something of a plastic “safe” with a combination lock. The safe isn’t really bullet-proof, but the form factor…about the size of a cookie jar…simply does not lend itself to popping into a pocket and walking out of the house like a small bottle of medication can. We’ve ordered a case of these for the MAR store, and should be in stock soon. They’re only $20, and will result in piece of mind for us and our clients.

HOUSING DENSITY, AB 1537

Yes! Last week, Governor Brown signed AB1537 into law, providing a huge victory for common sense and Marin’s Assemblyman Marc Levine. AB1537 lowers Marin’s default density for affordable housing projects from 30 to 20 units per acre, and correctly reclassifies Marin as Suburban rather than Metropolitan.

MAR worked quite a bit in advocacy of this bill. We were among the earliest groups to endorse the measure, and both MAR CEO Andy Fegley and myself testified before Assembly and Senate committees in Sacramento in favor of the bill.

It is the right bill, for the right time in Marin’s housing future. It is effective on January 1, 2015, and will run for eight years through a full housing planning cycle.

Congratulations to Assemblyman Levine and his team, along with Supervisor Kate Sears who also worked tirelessly on this bill’s passage.

Finally, thank you to over 100 REALTORS® who attended the Flood Summit at the Marin Country Club last Tuesday. It was a big hit, and lots of very detailed info was shared. The info didn’t really make me feel better, but it did make me feel much better informed. Thank you to sponsors Steve Strickland of JCP-LGS Disclosures, and Kristy Militello of First American Home Warranty, and also thank you to MAR Education Chair Mary Kay Yamamoto for their collective work on this useful event.

That’s it for now, I’m off to the fall CAR Business Meetings and EXPO in Orange County in the morning on a 6:30 AM flight. I and the MAR CAR Director team return on Saturday and we will likely have a couple of week’s worth of reports for you.

I wish you a safe and prosperous week. Be careful out there.

Blaine Morris
2014 MAR President

Sep 23

Flood Summit, SRES Certification and BAREIS SEL Form Update/Correction

By Marin Association of Realtors, Marin Real Estate News

Good day MAR members!

Tough weekend for Marin sports fans…Giants getting swept, 49ers and Raiders losing, Cal losing on a last second Hail Mary. At least the A’s took two out of three from the Phillies. It wasn’t a total loss for me, however, since my University of Utah Utes went into the Big House in Ann Arbor, Michigan and came away with a nice win to go to 3-0. But I won’t dwell on that, since no one cares about Utah football other than MAR CEO Andy Fegley, Cyd Gardner and myself.

Busy, busy, busy. Slowly but surely, they seem to be finishing all the road projects out there. The West End of San Rafael has been a bit of a war zone lately, with the main gas line replacement across Second and Third streets wreaking havoc, along with H Street on the edge of Forbes and Sun Valley. What a mess, detour central, and extra time needed for all. Though I don’t relish the arrival of the rainy season, at least the pending arrival of rain should cause all these streets to get closed up. Let’s hope so, anyway!

FLOOD SUMMIT AND SRES CERTIFICATION TRAINING

It’s close to last call for these events, folks. The Flood Summit, with FEMA and others coming to give us an update on the flood zone and flood insurance world, is scheduled for next Tuesday at the Marin Country Club. There are still some seats left for this great event. The cost is $15, and will include a continental breakfast. You can click here to register. Many thanks to Steven Strickland of JCP-LGS Disclosures and Kristy Militello of First American Home Protection for sponsoring, and also to MAR Education Chair Mary Kay Yamamoto for their efforts to put this together.

Also, there are still some seats left for next months’ Seniors Real Estate Specialist (SRES) certification training. All of us should have this certification, since such a large portion of our clients are facing aging-related housing decisions. I got the certification nearly three years ago, and the two days of the course were extremely productive in raising my awareness of these important issues, and also were helpful in making me more well-versed on the conversation itself. The certification training will be held at the MAR offices on October 6th and 7th, and registration closes this Thursday. The cost for the training and certification is $245, and you can click here to register.

BAREIS SEL FORM UPDATE/CORRECTION

As excited as I was earlier this month when informing you about BAREIS’ recent changes to the SEL form policy, I must admit that I passed along some incomplete information about the revised process. Over a period of several months and several reports to the MAR Board of Directors, BAREIS Class B Director and MAR Member Dave Egan had been sharing with us that a “streamlining” of the process was in the works.

It culminated at the MAR Board meeting last month, when the message that I heard…and reported to you in the “Tuesday Memo” after Labor Day…was that BAREIS had made a major and welcome revision to the process. It was my understanding that the much-loved SEL “exclusion” form still needed to be completed, but that your broker was responsible for ensuring compliance, along with all the other legal and procedural items your broker is responsible for. Dave shared that “hundreds” of SEL form compliance emails and phone calls will be “eliminated” or a “thing of the past” or something like that.

That was incorrect. Or at least I reported it incorrectly.

In BAREIS’ announcement of the change in SEL exclusion form policy sent to all of us via email on 8/28, the new process is defined. Yes, you do have to still get the form. Yes, you STILL need to send the form to BAREIS within three business days of taking the listing. You can avoid this step, however, if you SUBMIT the listing to BAREIS on the MLS with a FUTURE “ON MARKET” DATE. Which means you’ll need to totally complete the listing on the MLS, with all fields completed, within those three days.

Yup, that’s it…the “streamlining” of the process: either do what you’ve been doing (or should have been doing, unless you don’t mind paying fines) and send the SEL form to BAREIS within three business days, OR go through the entire process of uploading your listing, and submitting it with a “future” on-market date. This is beyond “incomplete” listing…it’s the whole enchilada.

The thrill of victory, the agony of defeat. Once again, it’s important for me to remind the membership that neither I nor the MAR Board of Directors have any authority to effect change at BAREIS. That’s up to BAREIS’ Board and its executive leadership. We simply get feedback and share feedback through our Class B Board Member.

From my perspective, this so-called “revision” is just that…a revision, not an improvement nor a streamliningof the process. It’s certainly easier to go fax in the form, just like we always have, than it is to spend 45-60 minutes inputting the whole listing and submitting it as “complete”. Within three days.

I received a few calls this week from agents who misunderstood the “improved” process, and were enlightened by BAREIS. I’ll share this feedback with BAREIS Director Egan tomorrow, who I continue to believe does an outstanding job representing Marin at BAREIS. In the meantime, you can share your feedback yourself with BAREIS by clicking here.

That’s it for now, lots of new listings out there for our clients for this beautiful Indian Summer season, good selling!

I wish you a safe and prosperous week.

Blaine

Blaine Morris

2014 MAR President

Sep 17

Upcoming Flood Summit, Junior Second Units, Economic Forecast and a Tribute to Jon Cutler

By Marin Association of Realtors, Marin Community News, Marin Real Estate News, Regulations

Good day MAR members!

Happy Indian Summer to you! As I was walking my dog through the neighborhood yesterday, I couldn’t help but be taken by the glorious day…perfect weather, perfect temperature, and beautiful golden light filtering through the sycamores and big leaf maple trees which are starting to turn color early. Football weather. Whatever you want to call it, breathe it in as fall is right around to corner. Both my wife and a neighbor were saying yesterday that they were ready for some rain to come. Me too, but as I always say, if it’s going to be a drought you might as well enjoy the weather! I’ll take the weather of this sweet season any day, as the rain will be here soon enough.

It was nearly two weeks ago that I was wrapping up a super vacation to Oregon. As we made our way down the Oregon coast, I first heard the tragic news of my friend Jon Cutler’s passing. I’ve had the solemn responsibility to notify MAR’s membership of this type of sad news all year long, but never has it been someone who I knew as well and considered a real friend. News was slow to trickle in.

From the first day that I arrived at the Frank Howard Allen office in Greenbrae eleven years ago, Jon was a larger than life personality. A very loud man. A man who for a large part wore aloha shirts, shorts and low cut Converse All Stars to his daily real estate practice. A man with a very warm heart, who was born in Beverly Hills but staked his own creative path in life. A man who served his country in Vietnam. How many kids from Beverly Hills, who went to Northwestern University, also went to Vietnam? Well, probably a lot, but Jon was the only one I knew. In addition to being a REALTOR®, Jon also was a very talented writer and made a nice living doing that on the side. It was almost like real estate was his “day job”.

Jon was a man who loved his life. He took walks in the afternoon down by the water in Greenbrae. And he always had time to help me when I was getting started in the business. Ultimately, his office was right across the hall from mine until he moved his practice to Sonoma a few years ago. We shared quite a few laughs through the years. A kind hearted and gentle man. He loved cats. I shed a few tears that day on the Oregon Coast, and I’ve shed a few since. Terry Bremer, his manager in Sonoma and I joked via email about her moment of silence in the office last week. A moment of silence for the “loud one”!

A great guy. RIP Jon Cutler.

FLOOD SUMMIT

Book your seat now for the MAR Flood Summit which is at the Marin Country Club in Novato two weeks from tomorrow on September 30th. Response has been terrific, and half the seats sold out in the first couple of days last week. This will be a great event to educate us on the rapidly changing world of Marin flood zones and the complexities in securing flood insurance. I’ve had several “flood insurance deals” this year, and a couple of times the process has been horrendous.

With the base flood level elevation rising around the bay next year, more and more of our sales will be subject to flood insurance requirements. We will have a panel discussion with members of FEMA presenting the latest and greatest info, along with other industry experts. The cost is $15, and will include a continental breakfast. You can register by clicking here. You will need your NRDS ID# and the password is 1234, unless you changed it. After login, scroll down to “Other Services” and select “Register for Events” then select Flood Summit. Scroll down to “Proceed to Registration” then follow the instructions for paying with your credit card information. MAR staff can help you locate your National REALTOR® Data Service ID number.

JUNIOR SECOND UNITS

We had a great presentation last Friday at the MAR Government Affairs Committee by Bob Brown, the Director of Community Development in Novato, who shared the emerging concept of “Junior Second Units” in Marin. A junior second unit is basically a unit in a single family home which is carved out of the existing structure. Obviously, there are lots of these already in Marin…it’s commonly called “renting out a room.” Renting out a room is already legal, of course, but Novato and other communities want to streamline the permitting process to make these “junior” units fully legal and documented. If we can do that, the plan is to use these units to contribute to the required number of new living units required by Sacramento and ABAG for each town’s Housing Element.

Parking is usually the sticking point when an owner wants to add a unit to a single family home in Marin. Bob claimed that in Novato they abate three illegal units for every legal unit that gets created. That sounds like a dwindling housing supply. The hope with this concept is that by legally adding a wet-bar-type sink, we can expedite the process and the permit fees will be negligible…like a few hundred dollars rather than the tens of thousands of dollars currently required for utility hookups. Parking is a non-issue, since the size of the house and number of bedrooms will remain the same…and parking will be assumed to be sufficient as it’s part of the existing house.

Quite a number of other towns in Marin are exploring this issue with the hope of a coordinated effort to address Sacramento and ABAG-mandated housing numbers in Marin. I think it’s a great idea. MAR does not as of yet have an official position, but the Board of Directors will be reviewing the report from the Government Affairs Committee at our next meeting.

ROBERT EYLER ECONOMIC PRESENTATION REVIEW

We had a sold-out meeting last week for the MAR General Membership Meeting. The membership voted in favor of next year’s MAR Leadership Team, headed up by President-Elect Matt Hughes. The keynote presentation was by Dr. Robert Eyler, head of the Marin Economic Forum and Professor of Economics at Sonoma State University.   Dr. Eyler’s report was quite upbeat in relation to the coming years in Marin, with steady forecasted growth and continued economic strength in the Bay Area. He does believe that interest rates will start to slowly rise…but people have been saying that for a couple of years now. He didn’t share anything on the 2-3 year horizon…at least economically…that will cause rates to spike up, or any other news that will cause Bay Area housing demand to weaken. If you missed the meeting, or would like to review the report, you can check out Dr. Eyler’s presentation by clickinghere.

That’s it for now!

I wish you a safe and prosperous week!

Blaine Morris

2014 MAR President